Eng. Ali Haji Moradi

Water Stress and Agricultural Expansion: Key Drivers of Lake Urmia’s Crisis

Wed Jul 23 2025

Lake Urmia’s drying is driven mostly by human activity—especially agriculture, dams, and groundwater overuse—while reduced rainfall and rising temperatures add pressure. Water consumption exceeds 70% of renewable resources, with farming as the main driver.

1. Natural vs. Human Factors in Lake Urmia’s Drying

Studies show that 31% of the drying is linked to natural factors—an 18% decrease in rainfall and a 1.5°C rise in average temperature over the last two decades. Human activities, however, account for 69% of the crisis, mainly agricultural expansion, dam construction, and overextraction of groundwater.

2. Water Stress Index in the Urmia Basin

Water stress is assessed through the ratio of consumption to renewable resources:

Safe: <20%
Acceptable: 20–40%
Very high risk: >40%

In the Urmia basin:

Renewable water resources: 7,136 million m³
Total consumption: 5,289 million m³ (~74% of renewable water)
Agricultural use: 4,699 million m³
Domestic, health, and industry: 588 million m³

This places the basin firmly in the “very high risk” category.

3. Agricultural Development and Excessive Water Use

Between 1994 and 2020, rapid agricultural development in the basin included cereals (wheat, barley), fodder crops (alfalfa, corn), legumes, oilseeds, sugar beet, vegetables (onion), potato, and orchards. Among these, fodder crops, sugar beet, and orchards consumed the most water, exerting unsustainable pressure on the basin’s limited resources.